Spatial-temporal transmission dynamics and control of infectious diseases: Ebola virus disease (EVD) as a case study
Spatial-temporal transmission dynamics and control of infectious diseases: Ebola virus disease (EVD) as a case study
Disentangling the spatial-temporal dynamics of infectious disease transmission is important to address issues of disease persistence, epidemic growth and optimal control. In this chapter, we review key concepts relating to the spatial-temporal dynamics of infectious diseases in meta-populations, whereby geographically separate subpopulations are connected by migration or mobility rates. We review the dynamics of colonization, persistence and extinction of emerging and recurrent pathogens in meta-populations; the role of demographic and environmental factors; and geographic heterogeneity in epidemic growth rate. We illustrate theoretical concepts by reviewing the spatial dynamics of childhood diseases and other acute infections in low- and middle-income countries, and provide a detailed description of the spatial-temporal dynamics of the 2014–16 Ebola epidemic in West Africa. We further discuss how increased availability of empirical data and recent methodological developments provide a deeper mechanistic understanding of transmission processes in space and time, and make recommendations for future work.
Keywords: Spatial-temporal dynamics, population mobility, metapopulation, Ebola, gravity model, disease persistence, source-sink model, critical community size, epidemic growth scaling, reproduction number
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