Elections and Economic Cycles
Elections and Economic Cycles
What Can We Learn from the Recent Turkish Experience?
This chapter studies the presence of political cycles in Turkey’s recent economic history. It first discusses the incentives and the ability of the central government to engage in opportunistic behavior to boost economic activity around local elections. It then describes how the tools available to the government on the fiscal and banking fronts have changed since the 2001 crisis. The chapter documents suggestive evidence that state-owned banks engage in selective lending in the run-up to local elections when compared with private banks. This selective lending seems to favor provinces where the governing party faces greater competition from the opposition. There is less evidence regarding fiscal spending. The chapter discusses the implications of politically motivated policies on financial inclusion and aggregate efficiency.
Keywords: Political cycles, state-owned banks, fiscal spending, elections, local government
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