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Deals and DevelopmentThe Political Dynamics of Growth Episodes$

Lant Pritchett, Kunal Sen, and Eric Werker

Print publication date: 2017

Print ISBN-13: 9780198801641

Published to Oxford Scholarship Online: December 2017

DOI: 10.1093/oso/9780198801641.001.0001

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PRINTED FROM OXFORD SCHOLARSHIP ONLINE (oxford.universitypressscholarship.com). (c) Copyright Oxford University Press, 2021. All Rights Reserved. An individual user may print out a PDF of a single chapter of a monograph in OSO for personal use. date: 17 January 2022

(p.xiii) List of Figures

(p.xiii) List of Figures

Source:
Deals and Development
Author(s):

Lant Pritchett

Kunal Sen

Eric Werker

Publisher:
Oxford University Press

  1. 1.1. Rich countries have had stable growth rates for more than one hundred years—with neither deceleration or acceleration—Denmark, for example 4

  2. 1.2. Steady growth—most growth concentrated in a narrow range 7

  3. 1.3. Unstable growth—episodes of boom and bust 7

  4. 1.4. Countries may have the same average growth rate but very different dynamics 8

  5. 1.5. Evolution of political and economic institutions in Acemoglu–Robinson 10

  6. 1.6. Dynamics of ‘why nations fail’ 11

  7. 1.7. Institutional change in Acemoglu–Robinson 12

  8. 1.8. Strong correlation between the level of income and ‘institutions’ but almost no connection of growth and institutions and even less of growth and changes in institutions, even over a twenty-year period 17

  9. 1.9. Transition paths between growth states 18

  10. 1.10. Distribution of horizontal and vertical power in dominant and competitive settlements 20

  11. 1.11. The rents space 21

  12. 1.12. De jure and de facto, compliance with the law 26

  13. 1.13. Deals and rules, good and bad de jure policy 27

  14. 1.14. Typology of ‘deals’ environments 28

  15. 1.15. Interrelationships between political settlements, the rents space, and the deals space 29

  16. 2.1. Liberia’s growth performance and episodes 42

  17. 2.2. Rent spaces during the Tubman episode in Liberia in the 1960s 47

  18. 2.3. Commodity prices and Liberia’s terms of trade 49

  19. 2.4. Changes to rents space during the Tolbert episode in Liberia in the 1970s 51

  20. 2.5. Changes to rents space during the Doe episode in Liberia in the 1980s and civil war episode in the 1990s and early 2000s 54

  21. 2.6. Evolution of economic composition, Liberia, 1987–2014 57

  22. (p.xiv) 2.7. Evolution of state capabilities, Liberia, 1996–2013 62

  23. 2.8. Evolution of rents space during Sirleaf episode in Liberia 65

  24. 2.9. Structure of the ruling coalition and Liberia’s political settlements 68

  25. 3.1. History of Malawi’s GDP per capita (1955–2010) with growth breaks filtered from four possible Bai–Perron breaks 73

  26. 3.2. Percentage of exports and GDP per capita in Malawi in US dollar prices 75

  27. 3.3. Investment as a share of GDP, Malawi 77

  28. 3.4. Malawi’s growth and political regimes 79

  29. 3.5. Distribution of rents space in Malawi, as a share of GDP 86

  30. 4.1. Growth episodes in Bangladesh 98

  31. 4.2. Composition of GDP (% share in GDP) in Bangladesh 99

  32. 4.3. Movement of the composition of Bangladeshi exports 100

  33. 4.4. Economic Complexity Index for Bangladesh 102

  34. 4.5. Rents space in Bangladesh during the 1972–82 growth episode 105

  35. 4.6. Share of actors in GDP in Bangladesh in the first growth episode 105

  36. 4.7. Rents space during the 1983–96 growth episode in Bangladesh 113

  37. 4.8. Share of actors in GDP in the second growth episode in Bangladesh 114

  38. 4.9. Rents space during the post-1996 growth episode in Bangladesh 114

  39. 4.10. Share of actors in GDP in the third growth episode (1997–2010) in Bangladesh 115

  40. 5.1. Growth episodes in Cambodia 131

  41. 5.2. GDP by sectors (% of total GDP), Cambodia, 1995–2010 131

  42. 5.3. Share of industry in GDP in Cambodia, 1995–2010 (% of GDP) 132

  43. 5.4. Employment shares by sectors in Cambodia, 1995–2010 (%) 132

  44. 5.5. Cambodia’s exports in 1974 134

  45. 5.6. Cambodia’s exports in 1989 135

  46. 5.7. Cambodia’s exports in 2013 136

  47. 5.8. Economic complexity, Cambodia 139

  48. 5.9. CPP’s growth and legitimation strategy, 1998–2013 143

  49. 6.1. Growth episodes in Ghana, 1960–2014 161

  50. 6.2. Evolution of real GDP for Ghana, 1960–2014 162

  51. 6.3. Evolution of GDP shares in Ghana, 1960–2012 163

  52. 6.4. Trends in the composition of exports from Ghana, 1962–2013 164

  53. 6.5. Trends in the Economic Complexity Index for Ghana, 1960–2012 166

  54. 6.6. Contribution of Ghanaian firms to GDP 170

  55. 7.1. GDP growth and GDP per capita for Uganda 187

  56. (p.xv) 7.2. Investment and savings (% of GDP) for Uganda 189

  57. 7.3. Sector composition of GDP (%) for Uganda 192

  58. 7.4. Changing structure of Uganda’s exports, 1995 and 2012 193

  59. 7.5. Uganda’s rents space, 1969 195

  60. 7.6. Uganda’s rents space, 1979 195

  61. 7.7. Uganda’s rents space, 1988 196

  62. 7.8. Uganda’s rents space, 2013 196

  63. 7.9. Structure of Uganda’s domestic economy 198

  64. 8.1. Components of GDP in Rwanda by sector, 1965–2014 (% of GDP) 219

  65. 8.2. GDP by kind of activity 220

  66. 8.3. Composition of Rwanda’s exports, 2014 221

  67. 8.4. Comparison between agriculture, industry, and services sector with annual GDP growth rates for Rwanda, 2000–13 222

  68. 8.5. Industry as a share of GDP for Rwanda, 1999–2013 222

  69. 8.6. Services as share of GDP for Rwanda, 1999–2013 223

  70. 8.7. Composition of GDP in the rents space in Rwanda 225

  71. 8.8. Chosen sectors aligned to the rents space in Rwanda 226

  72. 8.9. Comparison of annual GDP growth and annual export crops growth for Rwanda, 2000–13 229

  73. 8.10. Value of Rwanda’s coffee exports (annual variation, %) 231

  74. 8.11. Deals space in Rwanda’s coffee sector 231

  75. 8.12. Total mineral production (million tonnes) for Rwanda, 1996–2013 233

  76. 8.13. Comparison of annual minerals sector growth rates with national growth rates for Rwanda, 2000–13 234

  77. 8.14. Rwanda’s deals space in the mining sector 237

  78. 8.15. Comparison of annual GDP growth rates with annual growth rates in the construction sector for Rwanda 238

  79. 8.16. Rwanda’s deals space in the construction sector 242

  80. 8.17. Comparison of annual GDP growth rates with annual growth rates in financial services for Rwanda 243

  81. 8.18. Rwanda’s deals space in the financial sector 245

  82. 9.1. Sectoral distribution of GDP in India (% of GDP) 251

  83. 9.2. GDP per capita and its growth rate in India 254

  84. 9.3. India’s rents space, 1960–1 (% share) 260

  85. 9.4. India’s rents space, 1980–1 (% share) 260

  86. 9.5. India’s export structure, 1962 261

  87. 9.6. India’s export structure, 1980 262

  88. (p.xvi) 9.7. India’s rents space, 1996–7 268

  89. 9.8. India’s export structure, 1996 269

  90. 9.9. Measure of structural transformation (Hausmann–Hidalgo measureof product complexity), five-year moving average for India 270

  91. 9.10. Measures of total fractionalization and proportion of seats won by the majority party, national elections in India, 1975–2009 272

  1. 9.11. India’s rents space, 2005–6 (%) 275

  2. 9.12. India’s export structure, 2005 276

  3. 9.13. Distribution of wealth of billionaires by sources of wealth, India, 1996–2012 (%) 279

  4. 10.1. Per capita GDP for Malaysia and Thailand (US PPP dollars) 288

  5. 10.2. Economic growth in Malaysia and Thailand, 1956–2010 289

  6. 10.3. Investment rates in Malaysia and Thailand, 1960–2010 (% of GDP) 289

  7. 10.4. FDI in Malaysia and Thailand, 1970–2008 (% of GDP) 290

  8. 10.5. Manufacturing value added in Malaysia and Thailand, 1960–2010 (% of GDP) 291

  9. 10.6. Exports from Malaysia and Thailand, 1960–2008 (% of GDP) 291

  10. 10.7. Manufactured exports from Malaysia and Thailand, 1964–2010 (% of GDP) 292

  11. 10.8. Hausmann–Hidalgo measure of economic complexity, Malaysiaand Thailand, 1964–2013 293

  12. 10.9. Malaysia’s political settlement during its acceleration episode 294

  13. 10.10. Malaysia’s export structure, 1971 296

  14. 10.11. Malaysia’s export structure, 1981 297

  15. 10.12. Malaysia’s rents space, 1987 299

  16. 10.13. Malaysia’s rents space, 1996 300

  17. 10.14. Malaysia’s export structure, 1996 301

  18. 10.15. Thailand’s political settlement during its acceleration episode 307

  19. 10.16. Thailand’s export structure, 1973 308

  20. 10.17. Thailand’s rents space, 1973 309

  21. 10.18. Thailand’s export structure, 1988 310

  22. 10.19. Thailand’s export structure, 1996 311

  23. 10.20. Thailand’s rents space, 1996 312

  24. 10.21. Seats in Malaysian parliament 317

  25. 10.22. Malaysia’s political settlement during its deceleration episode 318

  26. 10.23. Malaysia’s general election results, 2013 319

  27. 10.24. Malaysia’s rents space, 2011 319

  28. (p.xvii) 10.25. Malaysia’s export structure, 2013 320

  29. 10.26. Thailand’s political settlement during its deceleration episode 327

  30. 10.27. Thailand’s rents space, 2009 328

  31. 10.28. Thailand’s export structure, 2013 330

  32. 11.1. Interrelationships between political settlements, the rentsspace, and the deals space 351 (p.xviii)