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Effects of Climate Change on Birds$
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Peter O. Dunn and Anders Pape Møller

Print publication date: 2019

Print ISBN-13: 9780198824268

Published to Oxford Scholarship Online: September 2019

DOI: 10.1093/oso/9780198824268.001.0001

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Quantifying the climatic sensitivity of individuals, populations, and species

Quantifying the climatic sensitivity of individuals, populations, and species

(p.44) Chapter 5 Quantifying the climatic sensitivity of individuals, populations, and species
Effects of Climate Change on Birds

Martijn van de Pol

Liam D. Bailey

Oxford University Press

To understand the effects of climate change and predict its future impacts, biologists relate variation in biological variables to spatial or temporal variation in weather variables. It is often unclear a priori which weather variables are important, over which period they act, and in what way they affect biological responses. Recently, multiple methods have been proposed to determine climatic sensitivity. Yet there has been little critical comparison of these different methods, making it difficult to determine the most appropriate method for different situations. Furthermore, evolutionary and behavioural biologists investigate individual variation in phenotypically plastic responses to weather, while ecologists and conservation biologists investigate variation among populations or species in climatic sensitivity. How do we quantify climatic sensitivities in such a way that they can be used effectively for such comparative studies? We provide an overview of systematic approaches, the pros and cons of different methods available, and outstanding challenges.

Keywords:   bias, climatic sensitivity, climate windows, comparative studies, intraspecific variation, machine learning, phenotypic plasticity, regularization, sliding window, spatial variation

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