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The Handbook of Political, Social, and Economic Transformation$
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Wolfgang Merkel, Raj Kollmorgen, and Hans-Jürgen Wagener

Print publication date: 2019

Print ISBN-13: 9780198829911

Published to Oxford Scholarship Online: March 2019

DOI: 10.1093/oso/9780198829911.001.0001

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PRINTED FROM OXFORD SCHOLARSHIP ONLINE (oxford.universitypressscholarship.com). (c) Copyright Oxford University Press, 2021. All Rights Reserved. An individual user may print out a PDF of a single chapter of a monograph in OSO for personal use. date: 22 June 2021

Transformation Crises

Transformation Crises

(p.668) Chapter 78 Transformation Crises
The Handbook of Political, Social, and Economic Transformation

Jan Fidrmuc

Oxford University Press

The expectation of post-socialist transition was that output would follow a J-shaped trajectory: the necessary reallocation of resources would cause a temporary decline followed by a rapid recovery. Reality, however, proved different. Most countries experienced a deep and protracted decline and the subsequent recovery did not always turn out to be very dynamic. The transition-induced contraction following the demise of the socialist economic system was primarily due to systemic reform and fundamental structural change. China, the only exception to the transformational recession, liberalized the economy only on the margins. Those countries that experienced steeper falls in output seem to have been able to create sounder foundations for subsequent economic growth. On the other hand, excessive recession may cause political backlash against reform.

Keywords:   J-curve, Washington Consensus, transitional recession, disorganization, structural reform, liberalization, growth

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