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Game Theory, Diplomatic History and Security Studies$
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Frank C. Zagare

Print publication date: 2019

Print ISBN-13: 9780198831587

Published to Oxford Scholarship Online: February 2019

DOI: 10.1093/oso/9780198831587.001.0001

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PRINTED FROM OXFORD SCHOLARSHIP ONLINE (oxford.universitypressscholarship.com). (c) Copyright Oxford University Press, 2021. All Rights Reserved. An individual user may print out a PDF of a single chapter of a monograph in OSO for personal use. date: 30 July 2021

The Moroccan Crisis of 1905–6

The Moroccan Crisis of 1905–6

(p.41) 3 The Moroccan Crisis of 1905–6
Game Theory, Diplomatic History and Security Studies

Frank C. Zagare

Oxford University Press

This chapter focuses on the Moroccan crisis of 1905–6, which was the first in a series of early twentieth-century confrontations that are generally considered to have led to World War I. The chapter interprets this crisis in the context of an incomplete information game model, the Tripartite Crisis Game, and one of its proper subgames, the Defender–Protégé subgame. British support of France during the 1906 Algeciras Conference, which ended the crisis, the firm stand that France took at the conference, and the German decision to press for a conference, are explained in terms of the model’s principal variables. In addition, the chapter discusses the Entente Cordiale and the “deterrence vs. restraint dilemma” associated with it, and similar strategic relationships. While the analysis is not necessarily at odds with the conclusions of some historians, it is more powerful because it is explicit about the causal mechanisms at work.

Keywords:   deterrence vs. restraint dilemma, Entente Cordiale, 1906 Algeciras Conference, Defender–Protégé Subgame, Tripartite Crisis Game

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