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Modern Risk Quantification in Complex Projects – Non-linear Monte Carlo and System Dynamics Methodologies - Oxford Scholarship Online
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Modern Risk Quantification in Complex Projects: Non-linear Monte Carlo and System Dynamics Methodologies

Yuri G. Raydugin

Abstract

There are multiple complaints that existing project risk quantification methods—both parametric and Monte Carlo—fail to produce accurate project duration and cost-risk contingencies in a majority of cases. It is shown that major components of project risk exposure—non-linear risk interactions—pertaining to complex projects are not taken into account. It is argued that a project system consists of two interacting subsystems: a project structure subsystem (PSS) and a project delivery subsystem (PDS). Any misalignments or imbalances between these two subsystems (PSS–PDS mismatches) are associated ... More

Keywords: project contingency, complex projects, non-linear methodology, SCRA, project system issues, risk interactions, bowtie diagrams, dynamic risk patterns, system dynamics, project rework cycle

Bibliographic Information

Print publication date: 2020 Print ISBN-13: 9780198844334
Published to Oxford Scholarship Online: October 2020 DOI:10.1093/oso/9780198844334.001.0001

Authors

Affiliations are at time of print publication.

Yuri G. Raydugin, author
Risk Services & Solutions Inc, Principal Consultant

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Contents

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Part One Risk Quantification in Simple Projects

Part Two Principles of Risk Quantification in Complex Projects

Part Three Risk Quantification in Complex Projects