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Computing Possible Futures$
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William B. Rouse

Print publication date: 2019

Print ISBN-13: 9780198846420

Published to Oxford Scholarship Online: September 2019

DOI: 10.1093/oso/9780198846420.001.0001

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Technology Adoption

Technology Adoption

(p.73) Chapter 5 Technology Adoption
Computing Possible Futures

William B. Rouse

Oxford University Press

This chapter discusses how to attach value to technology options. One needs to address the balance between investing in getting better at what you are already doing versus investing in doing new things. There are numerous high-profile examples of companies unsuccessfully addressing this balance, leading to their eventual demise. Technology and process investments create contingent opportunities for later solutions; they are contingent in the sense that they may not emerge. Many markets are inherently laced with uncertainties. If a company is better at managing uncertainty than its competitors are, high profits can result. Strategic value is the sum of the net present value of current lines of business, and the net option value of aspirational lines of business. Options-based thinking can provide a framework for value-centered organizations by characterizing value, assessing value, and managing value.

Keywords:   investment, uncertainty, option, value, net present value, net option value

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